HANJING, China — Millions of lower-income Chinese sacrifice heavily for
their children’s education, often forgoing retirement savings
completely, but as college graduates saturate a slowing job market, the
security they seek is increasingly elusive.
中國三亞——張小平（音譯）的母親上完小學六年級後輟了學。她的父親兄弟姐妹共10人， 從未上過學。
但是20歲的張小平卻是中國新一代的年輕人，由於全國大學擴招政策，這代大學畢業生的人數在世界上絕無僅有。
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Sim Chi Yin for The New York Times
張小平（音譯）是三亞大學的學生，趕上中國全國範圍的高校擴招。
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Sim Chi Yin for The New York Times
三亞大學是一所人文學科類院校，共有兩萬名在校生。每年學費約1.25萬元，食宿費為1.12萬元。
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Sim Chi Yin for The New York Times
三亞大學正在全力打造國際商務教育。
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Sim Chi Yin for The New York Times
中國學生在高中時最刻苦，到了大學就可以鬆口氣，去追求其他更多興趣。
扎着馬尾辮的張小平在這所位於中國南方的新大學獲得了英語專業學位。她還在業餘時間鑽研美國流行文化，在網上觀看像《吸血鬼日記》(The Vampire Diaries)和《全美超模大賽》(America’s Next Top Model)這樣的美劇。
她的志向很明確：要進入一家中國汽車公司，用她對美國文化的理解以及熟練的英語能力為公司工作，向紐約市供應新一代節能高效的士。紐約計劃2021年採用這種汽車。“這是我的夢想 ，”她說，“我會全力以赴去實現它。”
即便這只是她大學時期的幻想，但中國還有成千上萬像張小平這樣的青年。他們有足夠的聰明才智和雄心抱負，僅憑他們人數之多，已經足以在未來幾十年構成一股西方國家不可小覷的強大競爭力。
中國每年投入2500億美元（約合1.56萬億人民幣）在經濟學家所謂的人力資本上。正如美國在20世紀40年代末50年代初通過《退伍軍人權利法
案》給數百萬二戰老兵提供教育，打造了白領中產階級一樣，中國政府正投入大筆財政補貼，用於數千萬從農村到城市來的年輕人的教育。
此舉的目標是為了改變現有體系。現在僅有一小部分受過高等教育的精英階層在管理大量沒有接受過完整培訓的工廠工人和農民工。中國希望能夠培養更多受過教育的人，從而升級發展模式，達到一個接近歐美勞動力多元化的階段。
這一努力的成效如何，還有待觀察。
中國人口受教育程度不斷提高，固然可能有利於中國作為全球工業大國未來的發展，但是這也對中國的領導人提出了艱巨的挑戰。去年，中國經濟增速放緩，大批大學畢業生帶着很高的期待，就業機會卻很有限。
這在很大程度上取決於中國的集權政治體系能否培養出一種鼓勵世界級創造力和創新能力的教育體系，這是現代經濟所需要的，也能創造出高質量的就業機會。
中國還要應對大範圍的腐敗、一個僵化的政治體制、嚴重的環境惡化、國有壟斷行業效率低下等巨大困難。但是，如果這些問題能克服，受教育水平提高的勞動力大軍將可以使中國成為西方國家更加強大的對手。
北京的研究機構中國與全球化研究中心主任王輝耀說：“這將推動中國的經濟、科技和政治進步。但是，新興中產階級也會給政府施加壓力，要求改革。”
中國的教育大躍進很可能對全球化經濟產生深遠影響。在全球化的經濟中，越來越多的貨物和服務可以跨國流通，全世界的大學畢業生越來越多地為相似的工作而競爭。中國高等教育的急劇膨脹，開始給包括美國在內的全世界大學畢業生增加了就業壓力。
中國現階段到2015年為止的五年計劃提出了七項國家發展重點，其中很多是在西方年輕大學畢業生中廣受歡迎的新興行業。這些行業包括可替代能源、能源效率、環境保護、生物科技、先進信息技術、高端設備生產以及所謂的新能源交通工具，比如混合動力車和電動汽車。
中國的目標是投資10萬億人民幣擴大這些行業，使這些行業到2015年時占經濟總產出的8%，而在2010年這個比例僅為3%。
與此同時，很多大規模擴招的大學把重點放在那些中國對西方挑戰越來越大的行業中的現有技術上。
北京吉利大學是由吉利汽車集團董事長李書福在2000年創辦的私立大學。這裡現有兩萬名學生，學習的課程涉及各個領域，但重點在於工程和科學，尤其是汽車工程。
李書福還贊助並創辦了有兩萬學生的人文學科類院校，也就是張小平在讀的三亞大學。 他還在自己的故鄉台州開辦了一所有5000名學生的職業技術學院，培養有一定技能的藍領工人。
中國不斷增長的大學畢業生群體成為國際公司覬覦的人才資源庫。
“以前他們來中國是為了尋找體力勞動者，現在則是為了獲得腦力勞動者，”中國商業方面最著名的管理諮詢師之一丹尼斯·F·西蒙(Denis F. Simon)稱。
很多跨國公司，包括IBM、通用電氣、英特爾以及通用汽車在內，已經僱傭了成千上萬名中國大學畢業生。
“我們開始看到很多來自中國的行業領導者，以及那些具有領導力的人才，”前英國電信(British Telecom)公司亞太運營部負責人凱文·泰勒(Kevin Taylor)稱。
中國有13億以上的人口，僅僅是這個數字就讓中國的教育發展令人驚嘆。過去10年間，中國高等院校數量增加了一倍，達到了2409所。
1996年，中國17歲的年輕人中，還只有六分之一的人高中畢業。這個比例是美國在1919年時的水平。現在，中國年輕人中已經有五分之三是高中畢業，相當於美國在20世紀50年代的水平。
七年內，中國將要趕上現在美國18歲年輕人中75%的高中畢業率，儘管美國人在日後返校完成高中學業的比例要比中國人高。
過去10年中，中國的大學院校畢業生增加了四倍。目前每年的大學院校畢業生為800萬人。這個數字已經超過了美國，但在比例上卻比美國低。美國的人口只有中國的四分之一，每年卻有300大專院校畢業生。
經過這一個10年，預計中國將有近1.95億大專院校畢業生，美國的畢業生人數則不會超過1.2億。
當然，數量和質量是兩回事。一些中國的專家稱，不斷的擴招已經使高水平的教授和講師人才供應不足。
武漢大學高等教育學研究所所長胥青山稱，很多大學管理人員追求最快的招生速度以實現規模和學院收入最大化，但這樣可能會超負荷透支原本就有限的教授人才。
2011年，中國國家主席胡錦濤在一次講話中承認，中國高等教育存在缺陷。“人民接受了好的教育，”他說，“但我們與領先的國際水平之間還有差距。”
北京大學訪問學者、長期以來一直在中國從事諮詢行業的賈爾斯·錢斯(Giles Chance)稱，數千萬中國大學畢業生可能會在製造行業找到工作，但他們卻不具備在美國的經濟環境中競爭的技能——特別是在服務行業，比如醫療、銷售或商業銀行領域。
“中國二流大學的畢業生在語言能力和對文化的熟悉程度上都不及美國的學生，”他說。
中國大學最主要的問題在於，能否大規模培育創新，在多媒體硬件和軟件應用方面和美國最優秀、最聰明的人才競爭，或者能在高性能跑車和自動化車間設備的設計和工程方面超過德國人。
的確，日本的經驗表明，更多的畢業生並不能保證企業的創新能力提升。
二戰後的幾十年，日本在推動教育方面採取的措施與中國現在的做法類似。這曾為日本帶來了一個巨大的中產階級階層，並將日本轉變成世界上最大的經濟體之一。但日本後來進入了發展的平台期，部分是因為日本的文化注重守分而不鼓勵張揚。
中國大學如果不能解決創新上的問題，那麼這個國家可能也會在低成本勞動力和廉價資本的優勢用盡之後陷入困境。經濟學家認為這些優勢可能將會再持續10到15年時間，也可能會更短。
儘管如此，中國的人口是日本的10倍，有能力在很多領域與美國和歐洲的白領競爭。
一日千里
中國的變化有多大，發展速度有多快，在張小平一家的身上可見一斑。對她的父母來說，受教育幾乎是不可能的。
她的父親兄弟姐妹10人，排行第八，1968年出生在中國最貧困的省份之一江西省南昌市附近的一個小村子裡。父母都是農民。全家人一天只能勉強吃一
頓半飽。家裡大多數孩子都沒有上學，包括張小平的父親在內。張小平的父親從12歲開始就和他的兄弟一起在臨近的福建省做建築工人的工作。
張小平的母親比她父親小兩歲，是當地共產黨幹部的女兒，其父是本村的村支書直到1990年。她上學較晚，1977年，毛澤東迫害知識分子的文化大革命結束後，七歲的她才入學。六年後她小學畢業，隨即輟學。這也是當時農村常有的情況。
張小平的父親回村後與她的母親結婚，儘管這次婚姻最初遭到了女方父母的反對。他與自己的兄弟成立了一家建築公司。公司的生意不錯，六年後張小平的父親就買了家裡的第一輛汽車，那是一輛已經開了九年的黑色福特福克斯。
和中國幾億家庭一樣，張家也不重視物質上的安逸，而是把精力和金錢都用在供孩子念高中上大學上面。
張小平有兩個弟弟（計劃生育政策在農村地區的執行有時並不嚴厲），其中一個在有着105年歷史的同濟大學念國際貿易。上海的同濟大學是中國20所頂級高校之一。她的另一個弟弟在初中和高中各跳了一級，今年剛剛考入南昌大學。
張小平回憶稱，儘管她上了重點高中，卻沒有考上重點大學，“我的父母十分失望。”
最初，她也沒有申請到國家獎學金。所以她的父母要為她支付2000美元（約合1.25萬元人民幣）在三亞大學念書的全部學費， 因為三亞大學是私立院校，所以得到的補助不如公立大學多。食宿的費用每年又合1800美元（約合1.12萬人民幣）。
在公立重點大學，每年的學費也接近1000美元，幾乎是一個工廠技術工人兩個月的工資。
但張小平的成績名列前茅，第二、第三學年在三亞大學贏得了國家全額獎學金，夠支付學費的四分之三。
像張小平這樣的學生不斷湧進中國大學，與此同時，還有越來越多的中國學生出國留學。紐約國際教育研究所(Institute of
International
Education)的數據顯示，上一學年，美國大學的中國本科生或者研究生的人數超過了19.4萬人，創下歷史記錄，幾乎是五年前6.7萬人的三倍。
這在一定程度上反映出海外留學的吸引力，而且越來越多的中國家庭可以負擔得起這筆費用，他們正在尋找各種方式將他們的資金和孩子送出國，以規避國內政治和經濟局勢不穩定帶來的風險。但這也是因為西方大學教育質量比較好，入學要求也不那麼苛刻，不像中國的高考那樣出名地難。
在西方留學的中國本科學生一般家庭富裕，學習能力參差不齊。但喬治華盛頓大學商學院(George Washington
University’s School of Business)院長中國商業策略教授道格·格思里(Doug
Guthrie)稱，在國外念書的中國研究生通常都是在國內一流大學或西方大學拿到本科學位，在國外大學往往成績優異。
中國的研究生經常可以拿政府獎學金赴海外留學。政府獎學金說明，北京方面心照不宣地承認，高質量的高等教育，特別是理工科，仍然要求之西方。
粗放式增長
近來，中國新建了數百所大學校園，置身其中，一眼望去它們都很像美國的大型州立大學。
過去10年間，中國修建了很多全國高速鐵路、高速公路網；同樣，中國也建造了大批新校園，有現代化教室、新宿舍、圖書館和行政樓。
這些教室里座無虛席。
中國大學教育質量面臨的最主要問題之一是師資。站在講台上的是誰？教學的內容怎樣？教學方法如何？
中國的行政管理者在努力尋找有經驗的教授。直到上一個10年之前，中國的進入大學的人數還很少，更不必說考上研究生的了。如今，各高校展開了人才競爭，不
僅互相競爭延攬人才，也要和競相招聘中層管理人才的公司競爭。
“最大的問題在於找到好的教授，尤其是40歲上下，經驗豐富的好教授——這部分人是中國最需要的教師，”吉利大學副校長蔣淮稱。
幾乎所有最好的大學都是從近年的畢業生或者退休教師中招聘，但畢業生缺乏經驗而退休教師的知識可能又過時。
教育部數據顯示，1999年以前，中國每年畢業的博士生人數還不到1萬人。所有在20世紀90年代，在中國拿到博士學位、現在可能正處在教書黃金年齡的教師中，平均每個教師對應3000名本科生。
尤其是在工科領域，這個目前在中國最受歡迎的本科學位，公司在人才競爭中可以輕而易舉地擊敗大學。一個大學教授每月的基本工資通常在300美元左右，比流水線上的工人還少。
教授如果晉陞到大學管理者的職位上，工資就會得到大幅提升，但得到這些職位通常都要靠在共產黨內積極活動，而不是靠學術水平。通常，教授會多立科研項目，多申請經費，這幾乎不可避免地會導致重量不重質。
或者，很多高級教授由於對收入不滿，就兼職開辦公司。新加坡國立大學(National University of Singapore)研究中國大學教育的翁翠芬研究員稱：“他們把時間用在第二職業上來賺錢。”
用西方的標準來看，中國的教育方式也有點過時，似乎不適合培養企業家，或者跨國公司青睞的那些社會技能出眾的管理人才。
一些新辦大學院校開始嘗試研討會和工作坊的方式。但最常見的做法依然是，教授在巨大的禮堂里講課，而學生必須安靜聆聽。
“一些年輕的教師喜歡與學生互動，但年老一點的教師只是站在學生面前自己講自己的，”中國最好的大學之一天津大學2010屆化工專業畢業生龍路亭（音譯）稱。她不久前結束了一個兩年期的培訓項目，目前進入了德國跨國化工企業巴斯夫(BASF)北京分部的管理層。
和日本一樣，中國學生在高中時學習最刻苦。到了大學他們就可以鬆口氣，要麼去追求更多其他的興趣，要麼就像世界各國很多學生一樣，把時間花在聚會上。
龍路亭出生在中國西部四川省的中等城市自貢的一個公務員家庭，她稱自己在高中時除了睡覺就是學習，幾乎沒有時間社交。
“高中太苦了，”她回憶起父親教導她要成功時說，“我的大多數同學都是獨生子女，父母給的壓力太大了。”
但龍路亭說，到了天津大學之後，她可以選擇在上午上課並把所有作業做完。下午就去英語俱樂部，練習用英語和人交流、談笑，雖然她從未出過國。
中國一些大學有多達1000個學生社團，主題從語言到卡拉OK，無所不包。
中國內外有很多學者質疑，不斷增加的社團是否能夠培養創造力，因為中國的體制仍然要求學生很早便專業分科。很多學生進入大學以前便選好了專業，入學後就把注意力高度集中在專業課程上，選修課很少。
中國的僱主願意招聘專業化的畢業生，因為他們可以立刻入職，從事專業工作。對於其他類型的畢業生，比如人文學科的長期培養，他們沒有那麼大興趣。
在中國的外國公司僱傭中國畢業生的方式往往不同。他們通常更強調長期的職業發展，用各種任務來鍛煉培訓人員對複雜問題的理解能力、團隊工作能力和領導能力。
比如說，龍路亭在巴斯夫的前兩年培訓期間是在市場部、績效評估部以及商業運營部輪崗，最後才正式進入商業運營部，負責追蹤巴斯夫各部門在中國的銷售和其他報告。
巴斯夫中國總代表約爾格·伍德克(Joerg Wuttke)稱，像龍路亭這樣在排名前20的大學畢業的學生，他們屬於世界上最優秀的畢業生，但跨國公司比論資排輩的中國公司更善於使用人才。
他說，“種子會落在哪裡——石頭上還是肥沃的土壤中？我們能夠僱用這些有能力的人才，這使我們從中獲益。”
挑戰美國
中國已經擁有世界上規模最大的汽車產業，去年在中國製造的汽車和卡車是美國或者日本的兩倍。但中國基本沒有向西方出口一輛車，目前還沒有。
多年來，中國汽車製造商和決策者一直在為效仿日本和韓國的先例做準備。但實現出口目標還需要至少四方面的進步：設計更有吸引力的汽車和發動機；提高可靠性；發展本土技術，不依賴外國汽車企業出租的專利；理解海外消費者以及如何向他們開展營銷。
中國官員稱，他們為研發電力車和混合動力車注入幾十億美元資金，其中一個最大的原因就是希望能夠超越西方，先於其他國家開發出本土技術。
在未來的市場變化中，比如紐約市計程車與禮賓車管理局(New York City Taxi and Limousine
Commission)考慮2021年應該選購哪種汽車的時候，節能環保方面的技術進步可能會讓中國公司獲得優勢。紐約市已經提出要求，要求的士使用燃油
效率更高的車型。
中國在新一代汽車技術上的大把投資引起了世界的關注，但同時，中國也在努力國際商務中的軟實力：市場人才、廣告人才和其他了解海外客戶真正需要的人。
吉利總裁李書福出身中國東部的一個農民家庭。但他卻憑着製造廉價、卻又有足夠吸引力的汽車而成為中國汽車行業的巨頭。他持股的公司吉利集團在2010年從福特(Ford)手中收購了瑞典的沃爾沃汽車公司(Volvo Cars)。現在，他想要與西方較量。
吉利正在英國開展詳細的市場調研，來確定哪款汽車在那裡會受歡迎。到2015年，中國汽車製造商就很可能向西方發動全面攻勢，吉利今天的舉動，就是第一陣衝鋒。
李書福還一直致力於另一個目標，培養一批自己的管理人才。現在，他的公司從他創立的三所大學中招聘最優秀的畢業生。
三亞大學正在全力打造國際商務教育。那裡的學生們像張小平一樣，在儘可能多地學習外國市場、語言、文化標準以及其他更多知識。
她學習的是英語專業，但她最喜歡的課程卻是市場營銷。她在課餘時間為在三亞召開的國際會議和運動會做導遊，與母語是英語的人進行更多交流。她積極地閱讀關於汽車行業趨勢的書。對於說服紐約市購買吉利汽車作的士，她對自己的能力充滿自信。
“現在，中國正在不斷發展；在國際市場上，我們會發揮很重要的作用，”她用流利的英語說道，“我們需要與外國人交流的能力。”
翻譯：張亮亮
The Education Revolution
China Invests in a Vast Rise in College Graduates
By KEITH BRADSHER January 18, 2013
SANYA, China — Zhang Xiaoping’s mother dropped out of school after sixth grade. Her father, one of 10 children, never attended.
But Ms. Zhang, 20, is part of a new generation of Chinese taking
advantage of a national effort to produce college graduates in numbers
the world has never seen before.
A pony-tailed junior at a new university here in
southern China, Ms. Zhang has a major in English. But her unofficial
minor is American pop culture, which she absorbs by watching episodes of
television shows like “The Vampire Diaries” and “America’s Next Top
Model” on the Internet.
It is all part of her highly specific ambition: to work some day for a
Chinese automaker and provide the cultural insights and English fluency
the company needs to supply the next generation of
fuel-efficient taxis that New York City plans to choose in 2021. “It is my dream,” she said, “and I will devote myself wholeheartedly to it.”
Even if her dream is only dorm-room reverie, China has tens of
millions of Ms. Zhangs — bright young people whose aspirations and sheer
numbers could become potent economic competition for the West in
decades to come.
China is making a $250 billion-a-year investment in what economists
call human capital. Just as the United States helped build a
white-collar middle class in the late 1940s and early 1950s by using the
G.I. Bill to help educate millions of
World War II
veterans, the Chinese government is using large subsidies to educate
tens of millions of young people as they move from farms to cities.
The aim is to change the current system, in which a tiny, highly
educated elite oversees vast armies of semi-trained factory workers and
rural laborers. China wants to move up the development curve by
fostering a much more broadly educated public, one that more closely
resembles the multifaceted labor forces of the United States and Europe.
It is too early to know how well the effort will pay off.
While potentially enhancing China’s future as a global industrial
power, an increasingly educated population poses daunting challenges for
its leaders. With the Chinese economy downshifting in the past year to a
slower growth rate, the country faces a glut of college graduates with
high expectations and limited opportunities.
Much depends on whether China’s authoritarian political system can
create an educational system that encourages the world-class creativity
and innovation that modern economies require, and that can help generate
enough quality jobs.
China also faces formidable difficulties in dealing with widespread
corruption, a sclerotic political system, severe environmental damage,
inefficient state-owned monopolies and other problems. But if these
issues can be surmounted, a better educated labor force could help China
become an ever more formidable rival to the West.
“It will move China forward in its economy, in scientific innovation
and politically, but the new rising middle class will also put a lot of
pressure on the government to change,” said Wang Huiyao, the director
general of the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing-based
research group.
To the extent that China succeeds, its educational leap forward could
have profound implications in a globalized economy in which a growing
share of goods and services is traded across international borders.
Increasingly, college graduates all over the world compete for similar
work, and the boom in higher education in China is starting to put
pressure on employment opportunities for college graduates elsewhere —
including in the United States.
China’s current five-year plan, through 2015, focuses on seven
national development priorities, many of them new industries that are in
fashion among young college graduates in the West. They are alternative
energy, energy efficiency, environmental protection, biotechnology,
advanced information technologies, high-end equipment manufacturing and
so-called new energy vehicles, like hybrid and all-
electric cars.
China’s goal is to invest up to 10 trillion renminbi, or $1.6
trillion, to expand those industries to represent 8 percent of economic
output by 2015, up from 3 percent in 2010.
At the same time, many big universities are focusing on existing
technologies in industries where China poses a growing challenge to the
West.
Beijing Geely University, a private institution founded in 2000 by Li
Shufu, the chairman of the automaker Geely, already has 20,000 students
studying a range of subjects, but with an emphasis on engineering and
science, particularly auto engineering.
Mr. Li also endowed and built Sanya University, a liberal arts
institution with 20,000 students where Ms. Zhang is a student, and
opened a 5,000-student vocational community college in his hometown,
Taizhou, to train skilled blue-collar workers.
China’s growing supply of university graduates is a talent pool that global corporations are eager to tap.
“If they went to China for brawn, now they are going to China for
brains,” said Denis F. Simon, one of the best-known management
consultants specializing in Chinese business.
Multinationals including I.B.M., General Electric, Intel and General
Motors have each hired thousands of graduates from Chinese universities.
“We’re starting to see leaders coming out of China, and the talent to
lead,” said Kevin Taylor, the president of Asia, Mideast and Africa
operations at BT, formerly British Telecom.
Sheer numbers make the educational push by China, a nation of more
than 1.3 billion people, potentially breathtaking. In the last decade,
China doubled the number of colleges and universities, to 2,409.
As recently as 1996, only one in six Chinese 17-year-olds graduated
from high school. That was the same proportion as in the United States
in 1919. Now, three in five young Chinese graduate from high school,
matching the United States in the mid-1950s.
China is on track to match within seven years the United States’
current high school graduation rate for 18-year-olds of 75 percent —
although a higher proportion of Americans than Chinese later go back and
finish high school.
By quadrupling its output of college graduates in the past decade,
China now produces eight million graduates a year from universities and
community colleges.
That is already far ahead of the United States in number — but not as a
percentage. With only about one-fourth the number of China’s citizens,
the United States each year produces three million college and junior
college graduates.
By the end of the decade, China expects to have nearly 195 million
community college and university graduates — compared with no more than
120 million in the United States then.
Volume is not the same as quality, of course. And some experts in
China contend that the growth of classroom slots in higher education has
outstripped the supply of qualified professors and instructors.
Xu Qingshan, the director of the Institute for Higher Education
Research at Wuhan University, said that many university administrators
seek the fastest possible growth in enrollments to maximize the size and
revenue of their institutions, even though this may overstretch a
limited number of talented professors.
China’s president, Hu Jintao, in a speech in 2011 acknowledged
shortfalls in the country’s higher education system. “While people
receive a good education,” he said, “there are significant gaps compared
with the advanced international level.”
Giles Chance, a longtime consultant in China who is now a visiting
professor at Peking University, said that many of the tens of millions
of new Chinese college graduates might find jobs at manufacturers but
did not have the skills to compete in big swaths of the American economy
— particularly in services like health care, sales or consumer banking.
“A Chinese graduate from a second-tier university is not the equal of
an American in language skills and cultural familiarity,” he said.
The overarching question for China’s colleges is whether they can
cultivate innovation on a wide scale — vying with America’s best and
brightest in multimedia hardware and software applications, or
outdesigning and outengineering Germans in making muscular cars and
automated factory equipment.
Indeed, Japan’s experience shows that having more graduates does not guarantee entrepreneurial creativity.
In the decades after World War II, Japan mounted an educational
effort similar to the one in China now. Japan’s version led to a huge
middle class and helped turn that nation into one of the world’s largest
economies. But partly because of a culture where fitting in is often
more prized than standing out, Japan hit an economic plateau.
If China’s universities cannot help solve the innovation riddle, the
country may also have a hard time moving forward once its advantages of
low-cost labor and cheap capital disappear, which economists say could
happen within 10 to 15 years, and possibly much sooner.
Still, with 10 times Japan’s population, China has the capability to
compete with white-collar Americans and Europeans in a wide range of
industries.
So Far, So Fast
To see how far China has come, so fast, look no farther than Ms.
Zhang’s own family. For her parents, education was barely an option.
Her father, the eighth of 10 children, was born to rice farmers in
1968 in a small village near Nanchang in one of China’s poorest
provinces, Jiangxi, halfway between Shanghai and Hong Kong. The family
survived on one meager meal a day. Most of the children, including Ms.
Zhang’s father, did not attend school. At age 12, he followed his
brother to a construction job in neighboring Fujian Province.
Ms. Zhang’s mother was born two years after her father and was the
daughter of the local Communist Party official who ran the village until
1990. She belatedly started school at age 7, in 1977, a year after the
end of the Cultural Revolution, Mao’s longest anti-intellectual purge.
She dropped out after primary school, six years later, following a
pattern then common in rural areas.
Ms. Zhang’s father moved back to the village and married Ms. Zhang’s
mother over her parents’ initial objections. He started a construction
business with his brothers. The enterprise has done moderately well,
enabling Ms. Zhang’s father to buy, six years ago, the family’s first
car, a black Ford Focus that was already nine years old.
Rather than pursuing material comforts, the Zhangs, like hundreds of
millions of families across China, have focused their money and effort
on getting their children through high school and into universities.
One of Ms. Zhang’s two younger brothers — China’s one-child policy is
less rigorously enforced in rural areas — is a sophomore studying
international trade at Tongji University, a 105-year-old institution in
Shanghai considered among the top two dozen or so in China. The other
brother is now a freshman at highly regarded Nanchang University, having
skipped a grade in middle school and another in high school.
When Ms. Zhang did not get into a top Chinese university despite
attending a magnet high school, she recalled, “my parents were very
disappointed.”
Nor did she initially win a government scholarship. Her parents had
to pay the full annual tuition of $2,000 at Sanya University, which as a
private institution does not receive subsidies as generous as those
given to public universities. Room and board are an additional $1,800 a
year.
At top public institutions, annual tuition is a little less than
$1,000 — equal to about two months’ wages for a skilled factory worker.
But as a reward for top grades, Ms. Zhang has won government
scholarships for her sophomore and junior years at Sanya that cover
three-quarters of the tuition.
Even as students like Ms. Zhang flock to Chinese universities, rising
numbers of China’s students attend foreign universities. Chinese
undergraduate or graduate students at American universities reached a
record high of 194,000 in the last academic year, according to the
Institute of International Education in New York. That was almost triple
the 67,000 five years earlier.
In part, this reflects the prestige of studying abroad, and that more
Chinese families can afford the cost and are looking for ways to get
their money and their children out of the country as a way to hedge
their risk against internal political or economic turbulence. But it is
also because a Western college education is better, and Western
universities do not require the same high marks as Chinese ones do on
China’s famously difficult college entrance exams.
Chinese undergraduates who study in the West tend to be from wealthy
families and show a wide range of academic ability, from mediocre to
outstanding. But Chinese graduate students studying abroad typically
have bachelor’s degrees from top-tier universities either at home or in
the West, and they almost always excel academically while overseas, said
Doug Guthrie, a professor of Chinese business strategies who is the
dean of George Washington University’s School of Business.
Graduate students from China often have government scholarships to
study abroad. The scholarships are a tacit acknowledgment by Beijing
that a superior graduate education, particularly in fields like
engineering and science, often is still to be found in the West.
Quantity, but Quality?
Walk around some of the hundreds of newly built Chinese universities
these days and at first glance they look a lot like big state
universities in America.
Just as China has built national grids of
high-speed rail
lines and superhighways in the past decade, it has built campuses full
of modern classroom buildings, dormitories, libraries and administration
buildings.
Peek inside the classrooms and virtually every seat is filled.
One of the biggest questions about the quality of Chinese
universities involves who is teaching, and what and how. Chinese
administrators struggle to find seasoned professors. Because few Chinese
went to college until the last decade, much less to graduate school,
most universities find themselves in hiring competitions — with one
another and with companies all over China that are struggling to find
middle managers and executives.
“The biggest problem is finding good professors, especially good
professors of around 40 years old with good experience — they are the
most sought-after teachers in China,” said Nathan Jiang, the vice
president of Geely University.
All but the best universities must find teachers among recent
graduates, who may lack experience, or retirees, whose knowledge may be
out of date.
China was producing fewer than 10,000 doctoral degrees a year until
1999, according to education ministry data. So for every person in China
who received a doctorate during the 1990s and might now be in the prime
of a teaching career, there are 3,000 undergraduates.
Especially in fields like engineering, the most popular undergraduate
major by far in China, corporations can easily outbid universities. The
basic pay of a professor is typically under $300 a month — less than an
assembly line worker makes.
Professors can earn considerably more by winning promotion to
university administration positions, but these posts are often based on
activism within the Communist Party instead of research excellence.
Those who stay as professors frequently line up multiple grants to
conduct several research projects simultaneously, which almost
inevitably places quantity of research ahead of quality.
Or, dissatisfied with their pay, many senior professors start
companies on the side, said Weng Cuifen, a National University of
Singapore researcher who studies Chinese university education. “They
spend their time on second jobs, making money.”
Teaching methods in China also tend to be outdated by Western
standards, and seem ill suited to producing either the entrepreneurs or
the socially adept managers that multinationals covet.
A few newer colleges and universities have begun experimenting with
seminars and workshops. But the prevailing pattern remains for
professors to lecture in large halls, with students expected to be quiet
and listen.
“Some younger teachers like to communicate with the students, but
older teachers just stand in front of the students and speak alone,”
said Long Luting, a 2010 chemical engineering graduate of Tianjin
University, one of China’s best schools. She just finished a two-year
trainee program and has moved into management at the Beijing offices of
BASF, a German chemicals multinational.
As in Japan, students in China tend to do their most strenuous
studying in high school. In college, they can slow down, whether to
pursue more diverse interests — or, like many students around the world,
to spend a lot of time at parties.
Growing up as the only child of a municipal civil servant in Zigong, a
medium-size city in western Sichuan Province, Ms. Long said that she
studied practically every waking hour in high school and had little
chance to socialize.
“In high school, it’s a tragedy,” she said, recalling her father’s
exhortations to succeed. “Most of my classmates were also only children;
we have a lot of pressure from our parents.”
But when she reached Tianjin University, Ms. Long said, she could
take her classes and do all her homework during the mornings. She spent
her afternoons at an English language club, honing her considerable
ability to banter in the language despite never having traveled
overseas.
Some Chinese universities offer as many as 1,000 clubs. They cover everything from languages to karaoke.
Many academics inside and outside China question whether the growing
number of clubs is enough to foster creativity because the Chinese
system still requires students to specialize from an early age. Most
students choose their major before going to a university, and then enter
highly focused academic programs in which they have only a handful of
electives.
Chinese employers tend to look for specialized students who can fill
specific roles immediately. They have shown less interest in the
long-term training of other types of students, like humanities majors.
Foreign-owned corporations in China often use Chinese graduates
differently, putting more emphasis on long-term career development
through a variety of assignments to build a trainee’s ability to
understand complex issues, work in teams and lead.
Ms. Long, for example, spent her first two years as a trainee at BASF
rotating through marketing, the performance management division and the
business operations department, before settling in business operations,
tracking sales and other reports from BASF units around China.
Graduates like Ms. Long from the country’s top 20 universities are
among the best in the world, but multinationals are more able to make
use of them than hierarchical Chinese companies, said Joerg Wuttke,
BASF’s chief representative in China.
“Where does the seed land — on a rock or on fertile ground?” he said.
“We benefit by being able to hire all these talented graduates.”
Ready to Take On America
China already has the world’s largest auto industry, producing twice
as many cars and trucks last year as the United States or Japan. But it
exports virtually none of those cars to the West — yet.
Chinese automakers and policy makers have been preparing for years to
follow the example of Japan and South Korea. But reaching that goal
will require at least four big advances: designing more attractive cars
and engines, improving reliability, developing local technologies that
do not depend on patents leased from foreign automakers, and
understanding overseas buyers and how to market to them.
Chinese officials say that a big reason they are pouring billions of
dollars into the development of electric and hybrid cars is that they
hope to leapfrog the West and develop indigenous technologies before
other countries do.
Progress on energy-saving and less polluting technologies could give
Chinese companies an advantage, for example, when the New York City Taxi
and Limousine Commission decides in 2021 what model or models the
city’s fleets will be required to buy next. The city has been asking for
improved fuel efficiency in taxis.
But while China’s lavish investments on next-generation automotive
technologies have drawn international attention, the country is also
trying to develop the soft side of international business: marketers,
advertising specialists and others who can intuit what overseas
customers really want.
Mr. Li, the Geely chairman, grew up as a son of peasant farmers in
east-central China. But he has become one of his country’s wealthiest
auto tycoons by building inexpensive cars that have just enough pizazz
to be appealing. His holding company, Geely Group, bought Volvo Cars of
Sweden from Ford in 2010, and he now wants to take on the West.
Geely is starting elaborate market research in Britain to determine
which of its models will be popular there. That is the leading edge of
what is likely to be a full-fledged assault by Chinese automakers on
Western markets by 2015.
Mr. Li is also far along on another goal, training his own managers.
His companies hire the best graduates from the three campuses he has
founded.
Sanya University is ramping up international business education.
Students there, like Ms. Zhang, try to learn as much as possible about
foreign markets: their languages, cultural touchstones and more.
She is majoring in English, but her favorite courses have been in
marketing. She works in her spare time as a guide for international
conferences and sporting events here, to gain more exposure to native
English speakers. She reads actively about automotive trends. And she
brims with confidence about her ability to persuade New York City to buy
Geely cars for taxis.
“The status of China is growing all the time; we’ve got a really
important role in international markets,” she said in fluent English.
“We need the capability to communicate with foreigners.”
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